Cold reading
How a stranger seems to know all about you: the craft laid open, so that it can be recognised.

What is cold reading, and how do I recognise it?
What it is
Cold reading is the craft by which a reader who knows nothing about a stranger appears to know a great deal. It needs no fraud of the crude kind and no confederate. The reader opens with statements true of most people, watches the face and shoulders for the ones that land, drops the misses quickly and builds on the hits, and lets the sitter supply the details, which the sitter later remembers as having come from the reader. Hot reading is the other thing: looking the person up beforehand. Many readers who use these methods do so without knowing it, and sincerely believe in their gift.
The teaching
As Ian Rowland's Full Facts Book of Cold Reading (1998) teaches it.
Sounding as if you know
Cold reading is the craft of talking to a stranger so that it sounds as though you know all about them. Ian Rowland, a performer who uses it openly, sets it out piece by piece so that it can be recognised. It needs no prior knowledge, no accomplice and no crude trick. It works by statements that fit most people, by watching how each one lands, by drawing information from the sitter without seeming to, and by letting the sitter's own memory finish the work. Hot reading is a different thing: finding out about the sitter beforehand.
Setting the stage
The psychologist Ray Hyman set out the reader's working rules. The first is confidence: a reader who acts convinced can sell a weak reading. The reader presents themselves modestly, so that the sitter is not on guard, and wins the sitter's cooperation in advance, explaining that the reading depends on the sitter's help and that any miss is a failure of interpretation, not of the reading. A prop, cards, a palm or a chart, gives the reader time to think and a reason to watch the sitter's hands and face.
The reader keeps their eyes open: clothes, jewellery, posture, accent and speech all carry information. Above all the reader listens, for sitters often come wanting a sympathetic ear, or support for a decision already half made, and will say a great deal if allowed.
Statements that fit nearly everyone
A reading usually opens with stock phrases, statements so general that almost anyone would accept them as true of themselves: that one has a great need to be liked and admired, that one is hard on oneself, that one has talents not yet used, that one is sociable at times and reserved at others. Hyman calls a set of these a stock spiel. Delivered with confidence, as if made for this person alone, such a sketch is accepted as strikingly accurate, which psychology calls the Barnum effect.
The rainbow ruse
Rowland's rainbow ruse is a statement that credits the sitter with a trait and its opposite: you are punctual and reliable, though there are times when you run late; you can be the life of the party, though deep down you are rather shy. Since everyone has both sides, everyone hears the half that fits and remembers the reading as accurate. To recognise it, listen for the though, the but, the at other times.
The Jacques statement
Rowland names another kind the Jacques statement, after the melancholy Jaques of As You Like It, whose speech divides a life into seven ages. It is fitted to the sitter's stage of life rather than to the sitter: to someone of about forty, that they have been taking stock lately and wondering whether the path they chose was the right one; to someone young, that they feel pulled between what others expect of them and what they want. It sounds personal and is true of most people of that age.
The fuzzy fact and fishing
With the fuzzy fact, in Rowland's phrase, the reader supplies the words and the sitter supplies the meaning: I'm sensing a connection with a relative living overseas, or I'm getting the letter M. The sitter searches their own life for a fit and finds one, Mary, Michael, a mother, an uncle abroad, and even a near miss is often accepted. The reader then narrows the fact by the sitter's response, as if it had been specific all along.
Fishing, in Hyman's account, is simply a device for getting the sitter to tell you about themselves. Statements are put half as questions, a sense of some worry about health lately, perhaps, and the reader watches for the reaction, builds on what is confirmed and drops what is not. A related turn, known as the vanishing negative, asks in the negative: you don't work with children, do you? If the answer is yes, the reader knew it; if no, the reader thought not. Either answer is a hit.
Reading the reply
The sitter is the reader's real source. A nod, an intake of breath, a softening of the shoulders, a widening of the eyes, a correction offered freely: each tells the reader which way to go. Hits are built on and dramatised, and misses are let go quickly and seldom revisited. Over half an hour a reading can steer itself almost entirely by these signals, and the reader need not know they are doing it.
Handling the misses
A reader has many ways to turn a miss. The commonest moves it in time: if it has not happened yet, it is likely to come up soon, which Rowland calls a time revision, one of several revisions he describes by which a statement is never quite wrong. Others move it to someone else, a relative or a friend, or ask the sitter to think about it later, when it will surely make sense. And many readings end in hope, as Rowland's Pollyanna pearl does, with the promise that a hard area of life is about to improve.
What they want to hear
Hyman's last rules are the most human. Always give the impression that you know more than you are saying. Flatter freely. And tell the sitter what they want to hear, since the best-remembered readings foretell what the sitter secretly hopes. Afterwards the sitter's memory does the rest: they recall the hits, forget the misses, and remember as the reader's the details they supplied themselves.
Recognising it kindly
Many readers who use these methods do not know that they do. The craft can be learned by trial and error, reading after reading, and sincerely taken for a gift. The point of knowing it is to recognise it, kindly, and to see that a convincing reading is not, by itself, evidence of anything more. After any reading, the plainest check is to set it down sentence by sentence and ask which statements were exact enough to be wrong.
How it is practised
After any reading, three questions separate what was known from what was guessed. Which statements would have been true of most people my age? Which facts did I supply myself, by a nod or an answer, before they were given back to me? And which claims were exact enough to be wrong, and were they right? Setting a reading down sentence by sentence the same evening, or recording it with consent, and going through it the next day is the surest way to see it clearly. The aim is recognition, not suspicion of everyone who reads.
Where it comes from
In 1948 the psychologist Bertram Forer gave each of his students what he said was a personal character sketch and asked them to rate its accuracy. They rated it very highly, and every one had been given the same sketch, which he had put together from an astrology book. Paul Meehl named this the Barnum effect in 1956. In 1977 Ray Hyman, who had read palms as a student and found that clients accepted the opposite of what the lines were supposed to say just as readily, set out the working rules of cold reading in an essay that is still the standard account. Performers such as Ian Rowland have since published the craft in full.
What is known, and what is not
The Barnum effect is one of the most often repeated findings in psychology, and it is stronger when the description is flattering and when the person believes it was made for them alone. Studies of readings find that sitters recall them as far more specific than the transcripts show. Confirmation bias does the rest. None of this shows that every reader is cold reading, only that a convincing reading is not evidence of a gift, since the same conviction can be produced without one.
Its words
Cold Reading- The techniques by which a reader with no prior knowledge appears to know a stranger: likely guesses, flattering generalities and close watching of the reply.
Barnum Effect- The readiness to take a vague description that fits nearly everyone as a true account of oneself. Shown by Bertram Forer in 1948 and named by Paul Meehl in 1956.
Confirmation Bias- The habit of noticing and remembering what agrees with a belief and passing over what does not: the hits of a hunch are kept and the misses forgotten.
- Hot Reading
- Giving a reading from facts gathered about the sitter beforehand, by research, an accomplice or listening in, and presenting them as psychic knowledge.
Ask the Oracle further
What is the Barnum effect, and how does cold reading use it?How does cold reading differ from hot reading?
Before you practise
The Oracle tells what has been claimed for telepathy and second sight, what was tested, and what held: small effects have been reported and have not been reliably repeated. It will not tell you that you are psychic, or that a premonition is true. If you feel your thoughts are being read, please see a doctor.
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TelepathyClairvoyance and remote viewingPremonitionsWhat intuition isFrom Rhine to the ganzfeldPsychokinesisThe whole artSearch the tree

